There are people I see, wandering around, getting on with their lives - like these aren’t terrifying times - and I envy them. I read the news, watch events, read way too many presidential tweets, and I guess I get on with my life, but only because running around in a panic needs better legs than I possess.
There seems to be a inexorable trend, at least in the richer part of the world, of people pulling further apart - becoming more tribal, and to tribes smaller than the human species. The human world is ripping itself apart in slow motion, and it doesn’t look like most people notice. I’m hoping, because I’m an idiot, that what I see as a inexorable trend, is just some people being temporarily silly - nothing to see here - it’s all going to plan...do you know where your towel is?
The latest sizable brick in the wall is Slovenia. They went fascist last week. They and their neighbours in Hungary have elected full bore, right wing, nationalist and racist parties to run their countries. Poland has done similar, with a Catholic twist. Italy is toying with the same, but, in Italian style, they have elected a pair of almost opposites to run their country, with distaste for the 'other' begin the only point on which they agree.
Italian aside/
From what I've read, it seems the only thing the two main parties in their coalition government have in common, is stopping immigration and bad-mouthing the 'establishment' - mostly about immigration. They seem to be polar opposites on everything else. In the north are very right wing nationalists and to the south are socialist nationalists (but not national socialists, that’s a closer fit to the guys in the north...it gets weird with the history in that part of the world...). I need to learn Italian so I can read/watch their local media reports on how they get along.
I foresee another Italian election in a few weeks. Nothing unusual for them. “We place a ban on all immigration - law passed. Getting along after that - not gonna happen - drop the writ.”
/end aside
There is a powerful cycle at work in the West. We’ve reopened the tribal aspect of our brains. The economic collapse of the past decade reawakened the tribal urge to protect our own. Protecting our own - becoming less open to the ‘other’, makes the world work worse. The world working worse encourages protecting our own - leading to more of the same, in an unvirtuous cycle. The cycle isn’t inevitable, and things can happen that may break it, but in the meantime, we’re getting deeper into it (See Brexit).
Another brick is the oowsnn (orange one who shall not be named) ‘negotiating hard’ for his country. He is going to get the best deal for his country, and screw everybody else. It’s how he’s lived his whole life. He's unable to plan for any timeframe longer than 'now'...it's a PTSD thing. Unfortunately, he’s got the biggest bully pulpit in the world to be a bully on, and looking like he is ahead in the present instant is all that matters to him. He can't consider the longer term consequences of his actions, look for conditions where everybody wins. Either he's winning, or somebody else is, and if somebody else is, he has to attack them. He needs therapy, not adoration.
The multinational, cooperative strategy that won the peace after World War Two, and has minimised conflict in the rich part of the world is dead (The poorer parts of the world didn't get much benefit, which is most of the world, so it's not that tragic). Oowsnn is busy putting spike after spike into its coffin. The American led, trust/mutual-benefit/open society/buy-our-stuff world of the last seventy odd years has been overcome by a fear/threat (don't mess with us)/threat (submit to me, the sole overlord of all mankind)/sole-benefit world of today.
American aside/
It’s not oowsnn’s fault for being the limited, simple, violent being he is. He didn’t pretend to be anyone else in the campaign. He has his bully pulpit because Americans voted for that. The problem is American society is broken. "We love America. Our country is the best. We just hate most of the people in it." The Republican party has been tearing it apart since Reagan.
Remember “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government, and I’m here to help’”. A rejection of society. It leads to a country where a significant part of the population thinks all life should be protected and cherished - until it’s born - then it’s on its own. A country that never got past its original sin of slavery. There are huge amounts of good people in the US, but they let/made this happen. It’s on the country, not the man - or if on a single man, it’s Reagan, not oowsnn. He's the inevitable conclusion, not the initiation.
End Aside/
The human organism is coming apart. It needs leadership to put it back together. America holds a chance of recovering and providing that leadership, but political realities and negative feedback loops are winning at the moment. Will a few Republican Senators remember they swore to uphold the constitution before it’s too late? Is it a country of laws or men? Stay tuned, you’ll find out next episode, on “American Story.”
I put it at 70/30 against. History shows the power of the negative feedback loop of fear, leading to more fear, and a closing off groups towards more tribal identifications. Having lots makes it easier to fall to the fear of having less. Once started, it feeds on itself, and it builds a lot of momentum - and the established power centers aren’t even really trying to stop it yet. New power centers are building, but that takes time - thus the 30. Go for it, 30!
Having the regional nature of the political angst in America lead to a collapse of the union is a good result. The blue, coast states could make a pretty good country or two. The bad results aren’t any fun at all. It’s not written in stone yet, more wet concrete. The longer it takes them to correct their path, the harder the writing is to change.
So the American Century is toast. It’s happened before, and it will almost certainly happen again (I hope...it will if people are still around to have it happen. I put it as 100% chance, because anything else makes watching the trip scary, and there will be no one around to see if I was wrong...). Empires die, or at least retrench. Whatever comes out of this American moment, even if it's awesome, will need some time working on internal problems - so global leadership is past them, for now. Who is next to lead us into the future? China is the obvious hope.
On this anniversary of the Tiananmen crackdown, it is a fragile hope, but a real one. The primary governing attitude of the present leadership is that Tiananmen protests were bad, and keeping people happy protects against those bad things. People like to have freedom and stuff, but it’s freedom to do what they want to do. If the government doesn’t mess with what you want to do, you don’t want to mess with the status quo. Most people don’t want to protest and foment rebellion. The only do it when pressed, and if there is only a small population pressed, rebellion - at least successful rebellion - is unlikely (Having a few unsuccessful rebellions might make things bad enough, the next one works. It's just hard on the early rebels).
If China continues to ‘not press’ most of the population - who are busy with their jobs and kids and family and friends, just like most people everywhere - there will be no rebellion. Right now, their risk of rebellion is less than the American risk of civil war. Quite a bit less. No negative feedback loop here, it’s on the ‘getting richer and open to new ideas’ train. The democratic west has been on that train for the last half century and a bit, but it needs some maintenance work. If it breaks, bad things happen,.
Yes Virginia, democratic government is not a prerequisite for a happy, progressive society. It helps some, and provides for a pressure release shy of revolution when the population gets uppity, but it isn’t a requirement. (See Singapore - democracy in name only). Good government is a requirement at this stage of human evolution, but democracy isn’t a requirement for good government.
There have been periods of dictatorial good government in human history, often in China, in fact. Good government can continue, within democratic regimes, and likely will. The Scandinavian countries, Canada and Australia, parts of Asia, even parts of Europe beyond the Scandinavian countries. There is hope in some of the south/central American world. Even hints in Africa. There may even be enough mass there to help move the world in a 'better' direction, democratically.
That mass is going to be seriously threatened by the inward, fear driven devolution of the present world order. The fear driving it, is the fear of having 'less'. Especially 'less' than some other identifiable group. The countries that already have a lot, are more likely to succumb. Are those countries institutions strong enough to hold them together? It probably is for some, and not for others. I have a few places to refugee out to, if Canada is one of the others. The ‘rich’ world is a negative feedback loop, and there is going to be lots of ‘negative’ around to feedback off of. Bringing us back to leadership.
Relying on China as a global leader is culturally challenging. The Middle Kingdom was so named, because it’s the center of the world, and the only place that matters. They are more insular than the Americans were. Their culture is assimilating to that of the rich world, but mostly just the 'having more stuff than the next guy' part. They don't seem to care much about what happens to the rest of the world. They don't seem to much notice the rest of the world unless it effects them directly. They are mostly on board with addressing Climate Change, so are already more of a global leader, where it matters, then the America of present.
There are positive signs around around the world. New features to deflect the historical trend - fight off the devolutionary pattern. New engagement in American politics, The internet, difficult to limit flow of ideas, and ability to touch and connect on a global scale and simple travel are new. Not free flow of ideas, because the Powerful like to control whatever they can, but difficult to limit. It took months to get news from one side of the Roman Empire to the other. This is different.
With it, the planet has a force driving cultural assimilation. Cultural assimilation is more important than governments. That’s the biggest lesson of the post WWII regime, and why General Marshall was a genius who doesn’t get enough credit. Making everyone richer, makes everyone more open to the 'other', leads to cultures assimilating more, leads to better cooperation, leads to making everyone richer (not just in money), etc. Positive feedbacks. We need a new Marshall.
One of the drivers of cultural assimilation at the moment is private corporations. Coke, Apple, McDonalds - there aren’t many people on the globe that don’t know what those represent. Movies. TV. Books. Sharing mass cultural exposure, makes people more open to the exposed 'otherness'. Of course, a culture dominated by multinational economic entities won’t necessarily be a great place to hang out, but whatevs - we need to take what we can. As long as they mostly stick to the commercial space it can help. Of course the powerful rarely stick to any one space.
Governments are still needed to do all the unprofitable stuff - war, healthcare, education etc. - and, as mentioned, democracy is not a requirement for good government. Aristocracy is harder than dictatorial regimes to get right, so I don’t see effective government by corporation happening - unless we drop much further down that feedback hole, and have a lower low to crawl back out of. Especially with the parasitic nature of many modern corporations.
Luckily, watching all this stuff happen in real time is totally fascinating. Sure, hanging around hot tubs with beautiful people and plentiful resources is nice, but not fascinating. And hot tubs cook you slowly and you get sick and stuff. New science. Really. Look it up.
I figure we are on the cusp of a major shift in human organisational strategy, into something never before seen, and fair and wonderful for all. I give it 100% likelihood. Alternatives are mostly ‘not fun’ and I’m working on ‘fun‘ this decade. All it takes is people to be excellent to each other, and not take more than they need...but that’s kind of boring. Watching is all come together is more exciting, and I like exciting…if I get bored I notice how much pain I’m in, and the Black Bloody Dog comes to play, so even bad excitement is good...
Here’s to an exciting life!